Difficult Water Crisis
Difficult Water Crisis: One year passed since India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Pakistan’s National Security Council warned India soon after. It said any water diversion would count as an act of war. Still, the treaty remains inactive.
India Water Projects
India now speeds up several hydropower projects. It changes deadlines and improves funding. It also modifies designs to control water flow better. India increases diversion work at the Kishanganga project.
India builds and expands many dams in occupied Jammu and Kashmir. Projects like Kiru, Kwar, and Pakal Dul grow on the Chenab River. India also upgrades canals, storage, and irrigation systems. These steps may reduce water flow to Pakistan and increase India’s use.
Water Strategy Shift
India now follows a broader water-control strategy. It shifts away from project-based planning. Experts say India may double or triple its water storage on western rivers. Most projects may finish between 2030 and 2032.
Pakistan now faces a hard choice. It can try to convince India or force it to change. So far, Pakistan uses legal and diplomatic pressure.
Pakistan’s Legal Efforts
Pakistan raises issues through water commissioners of both countries. It complains about irregular water flows. It also protests the end of data sharing.
Pakistan continues legal cases at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. The court gave a ruling on the treaty last year. India rejected that ruling.
Pakistan also asks the World Bank to help. But the World Bank says it can only act as a facilitator.
Pakistan Water Strategy Options
Pakistan raises the issue at the UN and other forums. It calls India’s actions “weaponisation of water.” It also documents water flow changes in the Chenab.
Experts say Pakistan must rethink its strategy. Legal and diplomatic steps build records, but they do not force change.
Pakistan has three main options. First, it can clearly define “act of war” triggers. This may improve deterrence, but it reduces flexibility during crises.
Treaty Renegotiation Plan
Second, Pakistan can push for treaty renegotiation. It can ask India to stop disputed projects during talks. But this needs strong technical and legal capacity. It also needs back-channel diplomacy. Political tensions make talks harder.
Continuing Legal Approach
Third, Pakistan can continue its current approach. It uses legal and diplomatic tools. This avoids escalation, but it works slowly. Courts take time, and diplomacy may not pressure India.
Urgent Water Decisions
Time works against Pakistan. India continues building water projects. As projects finish, Pakistan loses leverage. Delay strengthens India’s position. Pakistan now faces urgent and difficult choices about its water future.
Published in Dawn, 6th May 2026
