A grand bargain
China’s mediation of a historic deal earlier this year, normalizing relations between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, posed a significant challenge to the Biden administration and left the US diplomatically marginalized in the Middle East. This rapprochement undermined key US goals, such as isolating Iran and fostering relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and elevated China as a prominent power broker in the region. In response, the Biden administration is now attempting to reestablish its influence in the Middle East and counter growing Chinese presence in the region.A grand bargain
President Joe Biden has hinted at a potential deal to establish ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, acknowledging that efforts are in progress. The details of this “big Middle East deal” were outlined in a New York Times op-ed by Thomas Friedman. The proposed deal involves Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel in exchange for a mutual security pact with the US and a commitment to provide generous aid to the Palestinians in the West Bank while reducing ties with China. In return, Israel would commit not to annex the West Bank, halt settlement expansion, and recommit to a two-state solution. The Palestinian Authority would need to support the Saudi-Israeli peace agreement.
High-level US officials visited Saudi Arabia to explore this potential deal, indicating American interest in the proposal. However, official statements did not explicitly mention the normalization agreement.
Several key questions arise regarding Biden’s proposed “grand bargain” in the Middle East. Why is the White House considering such a deal now? What are its objectives? What are the prospects for its success, and would it endure even if reached? The timing of this proposal appears linked to domestic politics. As Biden seeks to bolster his political standing and foreign policy achievements ahead of a challenging presidential election. However, the late timing of these efforts, along with the complexities of the proposed deal, raises doubts about its viability.
The potential deal aims to restore American dominance in the Middle East. Counter China’s diplomatic and economic gains, and reconfigure regional relationships in alignment with US and Israeli interests. Providing relief to Palestinians in the West Bank could enhance. The US’s image in the Arab and Muslim world, even if it benefits Israel more.
The chances of diplomatic success appear slim, given the formidable challenges involved in negotiations between the US. Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the Palestinians. Doubts persist about American reliability in the region, and the approaching US presidential election further complicates matters. It remains uncertain whether the involved parties have enough confidence in the US. And its ability to implement the deal to make necessary concessions. Especially given recent strained relations between the Biden administration and Saudi Arabia and Israel.
While some experts view the “grand bargain” as a non-starter or a long shot. Diplomacy remains a dynamic and unpredictable field, where the possible can sometimes defy expectations.
