Grow Faster
Grow Faster: Recent discussion shows strong pressure on the government to do more than stabilise the economy. Economic activity remains weak. People are talking about cabinet changes. Many believe new faces can deliver six per cent growth. Even IMF oversight cannot easily stop these demands. Change now seems unavoidable.
Repeat Pattern
Pakistan usually follows a familiar growth path. The government cuts interest rates. It relaxes import controls. It offers tax relief. People then spend more. This creates short-term economic activity. Policymakers have used this approach for decades.
The outcomes stay predictable. Foreign reserves fall. The fiscal deficit widens. The currency weakens. Devaluation and inflation follow. The country then returns to the IMF to avoid default. The IMF programme slows the economy again. Higher interest rates, tighter imports, and higher taxes push the economy back to the starting point.
Same Constraints
Young adults who came of age after 2000 have seen this cycle four times. Power shifts often happened alongside it. The core problems never changed. Another growth push will likely repeat the same boom-and-bust cycle for the fifth time.
The main problem is the shortage of dollars. Growth needs foreign exchange. Dollars are scarcer today than before. Exports remain stagnant. Local businesses struggle to produce goods the world wants. They also struggle to sell globally.
No Easy Path
Cheap global credit has disappeared. No major ally offers large financial support. Foreign investors show little interest. Ordinary workers abroad now carry the burden. They work in harsh conditions and send money home. Their remittances keep the economy running.
Given these facts, no easy growth path exists. Any quick push will likely end in crisis within a year. Experts repeat the same advice. The country needs power sector reform to cut costs. It needs better tax documentation. It needs a smaller government to spend more on skills and productivity.
Some reforms may happen over time. They may deliver limited results. No guarantee exists. More radical ideas also circulate. These include redistributing resources to boost local production. Such ideas remain highly unlikely.
Buying Time
Reforms carry heavy political costs. They trigger conflicts among powerful groups. Decision-makers avoid these risks. Politicians protect their support bases. The establishment seeks fast legitimacy. Slow reforms do not serve that goal.
Leaders therefore prefer short-term fixes. These fixes create temporary economic space. They delay hard decisions. Two shortcuts stand out.
The first involves external financial support linked to geopolitics. Defence deals or regional alignments could provide funds. Such support would buy time. It would not change domestic structures.
Domestic Shortcut
The second shortcut is domestic. The centre may revise the NFC award. It may take a larger share from provinces. This would reduce borrowing. It might even allow short-term tax cuts.
This approach could briefly lift growth. Many would welcome it. It would also weaken provincial autonomy. The centre would regain control over resources. It is easy to predict who would benefit most from this shift.
Published in Dawn,19th January 2026
