Movement in Iran
Movement in Iran: Iran’s clerical government has survived another wave of internal resistance. Foreign rivals often exploit this unrest. However, heavy human losses have deeply affected Iranian society. For now, the threat of a US-Israeli strike has eased. The US and Israel, backed by Gulf states, stepped back after warning assessments. They feared a wider regional war and saw no clear plan after regime change.
Divided Opposition
Inside Iran, opposition groups remain divided. They lack a clear leader. Still, the US, Israel, and their allies continue to seek political change in Tehran. They now rely on new tactics. Reports say the regime will not fall quickly. It controls strong security forces. Key institutions remain loyal. A large part of the population still supports the system.
Ongoing Pressure
External powers and internal groups will likely keep up pressure. They may raise it gradually. Their aim is to weaken the state over time. Signs of stress appear inside major institutions. These include the Assembly of Experts and the Guardian Council. Tensions also exist between the Revolutionary Guard and the regular army. These bodies still follow Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s strategy.
Exploiting Divisions
Foreign actors may exploit Iran’s internal divisions. They may fuel unrest in sensitive regions. Analysts point to Khuzestan, Kurdish areas in the west, and Baloch regions near Pakistan. Anti-regime groups remain active in these zones.
Iran uses a “forward defence” strategy. It projects power abroad to protect itself at home. Its enemies may now turn this idea against it. They may try to weaken Iran from within. Iran’s regional proxy network has already suffered damage. Some analysts believe rivals may now activate proxy groups inside Iran.
Such a move would force the Revolutionary Guard to focus inward. A mix of protests and armed attacks would stretch its forces. Iran’s regional allies can no longer provide support.
Rising Unrest
Recent events suggest this process has begun. Unrest has encouraged separatists in Arab and Kurdish areas. The strongest activity appears in Sistan-Baluchestan. Several militant groups there have reportedly united.
Jaishul Adl operates near the Iran-Pakistan border. It often attacks Iranian security forces. The group now calls itself the People’s Fighters Front. Three smaller groups have merged into this new organisation. The change signals a shift away from religion toward nationalism.
This new image may appeal to local Baloch communities. It also aligns the group with other Baloch and Kurdish movements. The shift may help attract funding from diaspora groups and foreign supporters. The group also seeks acceptance in Western and Arab capitals.
Failed Western Support
This strategy resembles that of Abdolmalik Rigi. He once led a Baloch militant group. He tried but failed to gain Western support. At that time, the global war on terror limited such backing. Today, conditions are different.
If unrest grows, Baloch groups in Iran may work with Baloch militants in Pakistan. These groups have gained combat experience. Some analysts doubt such cooperation. They point to past Saudi links and Saudi-Pakistan ties. However, support from other powers could give the group more freedom.
Greater Balochistan
Many Baloch groups support the idea of a Greater Balochistan. This vision includes parts of Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Cross-border cooperation remains possible. Rising instability could also draw in IS fighters and criminal networks. The region already hosts drug and human trafficking routes. Chaos could spread across Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.
Any major change in Iran would affect Pakistan directly. Some outcomes may offer small benefits. However, rising border instability would increase security risks. It would also strain relations between Islamabad and Tehran.
Published in Dawn, 18th January 2026
