Water Scarcity and Agriculture Expansion
Water Scarcity and Agriculture Expansion: Rather than enhancing water efficiency, planners prioritize constructing new reservoirs and expanding irrigation systems, often driven by financial incentives. These projects are lucrative opportunities, but the Indus basin faces frequent water shortages, particularly during non-monsoon years. For the past 25 years, the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has consistently reported water deficits, failing to honor the water allocations set by the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord.
Sindh raised concerns about the water availability certificate issued by Irsa for the Cholistan irrigation project earlier this year. In its submission to the Council of Common Interests, Sindh pointed out that Irsa’s water records (1999-2023) indicate that both Punjab and Sindh have faced average water shortages of 13.7% and 19.4%, respectively.
Misleading Water Availability Data
Punjab’s water availability data presented to Irsa was found to be misleading, omitting the water required for existing and future needs, thus falsely suggesting a surplus. The report failed to account for several significant water reductions, including those from the eastern rivers (2.98 MAF), India’s use of western rivers (2 MAF), Afghanistan’s potential use of the Kabul River (0.5 MAF), and overestimated water supplies in the water accord, leading to a shortfall of 21.5 MAF. Additional reductions are expected from planned dams (6.4 MAF from the Bhasha dam, 0.88 MAF from the Mohmand dam, 0.16 MAF from the Nai Gaj dam, and others). In total, these requirements add up to 50.65 MAF annually, far exceeding the claimed water surplus. Over the past 25 years, the average annual flow below the Kotri Barrage has remained at just 14 MAF, creating a substantial annual deficit of 36.63 MAF.
Future water availability is even more uncertain, as climate change increasingly impacts river flows. The chairman of the National Disaster Management Authority recently highlighted troubling trends, including a 23.3% reduction in the country’s snow cover and a 3% annual decline in glaciers, leading to the loss of 16% of glacial mass in the past five years. Although this may cause short-term water surpluses, the long-term outlook is grim.
Given these challenges, large-scale irrigation schemes, such as the Greater Cholistan project—which includes multiple dams, barrages, and canals—are impractical. The project aims to irrigate over 6 million acres, requiring vast amounts of water. This is part of a broader push for corporate farming, with the Green Pakistan Initiative targeting 4.8 million acres of barren land for such ventures. Corporate agriculture, designed for international trade, necessitates a reliable water supply, which is increasingly hard to guarantee with Pakistan’s current water limitations.
Concerns Over Corporate Agriculture Expansion
Plans to cultivate millions of acres, including proposals for massive irrigation infrastructure and billions of dollars in investment from Gulf nations, raise significant concerns, particularly in lower riparian regions like Sindh, where water scarcity is already a pressing issue. The demand for water for corporate agriculture, especially with Punjab’s water resources already fully committed, has caused understandable apprehension.
Published in Dawn, 1st December 2024
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